TROPICS: The Atlantic basin is now very quiet. Tropical storm formation is not expected over the next seven days…
Two-Day Tropical Outlook
Seven-Day Tropical Storm and Hurricane Outlook
Hurricane cones, spaghetti models and tropical storms
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The Essential Tools for Tracking Tropical Storms
When it comes to keeping tabs on developing tropical storms and hurricanes, there are three essential maps you should be familiar with: the Forecast Cone, satellite imagery, and radar. The National Hurricane Center’s Forecast Cone provides a visual representation of the storm’s most likely path, including a shaded area indicating the potential range of error. Satellite imagery offers a real-time view of the storm’s cloud structure and organization, which forecasters use to assess its strength and potential for intensification. Finally, radar imagery provides highly detailed information about precipitation intensity and storm movement, especially helpful for pinpointing the exact location of the eye or eyewall in strong hurricanes. The Forecast Cone shows you where the storm is likely headed. Satellite images reveal its size and cloud patterns, hinting at how strong the storm is. Radar pinpoints heavy rain and the exact location of the storm’s center, especially crucial as it gets closer to land.
Going Deeper for Specific Risks
Need more detail? Specialized maps offer incredible insights. Wind Speed Probabilities maps tell you the chances of dangerous winds hitting your area. Storm Surge maps highlight where flooding from the ocean is a threat – a must for coastal areas. And those squiggly “spaghetti models” give a sense of how much uncertainty there is in the longer-term forecast.
Essential Maps:
Forecast Cone (NHC): The iconic cone-shaped graphic shows the probable track of a storm’s center and the likely range of possibilities. It’s important to remember that impacts can occur outside the cone.
Satellite Imagery:
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- Provides real-time visuals of the storm’s cloud structure and organization. Helps identify areas of heavy rain, potential intensification, and the storm’s overall size.
Radar: Provides detailed information about rainfall intensity, storm movement, and can help pinpoint the eye or eyewall for strong hurricanes. Particularly useful for short-term tracking and understanding local impacts.
Specialized Maps:
Wind Speed Probabilities: Shows the chance of experiencing tropical storm-force or hurricane-force winds at a specific location. Useful for gauging potential wind damage risks.
Storm Surge Maps: Displays the predicted areas at risk of flooding from storm surge, a major hazard of hurricanes. Critical information for coastal residents.
Spaghetti Models: Collections of potential storm tracks from various forecast models. Helps visualize the uncertainty in the forecast, especially further in the future.
Tropical Tidbits and Spaghetti Models are essential tools for staying informed about tropical weather. Tropical Tidbits offers a wealth of information and analysis, while Spaghetti Models provide a visual representation of potential storm paths. By understanding and utilizing these resources, individuals can make informed decisions and better prepare for the impacts of tropical storms.
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