Christmas Weather Update: Snow or Travel Hazards?

It’s still a bit early to provide a precise forecast for the Christmas holiday. However, we can glean some insights from historical weather data to see which regions might experience a snowy Christmas.

Our meteorologists have examined weather data from 1991 to 2020 to identify which areas have the highest likelihood of seeing snow on Christmas. Among the 25 largest U.S. cities, the chances are generally low.

Top Cities for a White Christmas:

• Denver and Chicago: These cities have the best odds, with about a 1 in 3 chance of a white Christmas, based on historical trends.
• Indianapolis and Boston: These cities follow with roughly a 1 in 4 chance of snow on Christmas.
• If you like snow check out these destinations…

Atlanta

Atlanta is expected to experience cooler temperatures leading up to Christmas, with highs in the 40s and lows potentially dipping into the teens. There’s a chance of a wintry mix on Christmas Eve, but it’s unlikely that any significant snowfall will stick. The city is preparing for potential winter weather, with warming shelters and safety measures in place.

Dallas

Dallas is looking at a milder Christmas this year. Temperatures will be above normal, with highs around 60°F and lows in the 40s. Rain is expected on Christmas Eve and possibly lingering into Christmas Day, but no wintry weather is anticipated. It seems like it will be a rainy but warm holiday season in Dallas.

Snow Chances Improve Further North and in Higher Elevations:

The NOAA has released a map showing the historical probability of snow across the entire country. States in the far north and mountainous areas in the West have the highest chances.

Impact of La Niña on Christmas Weather:

This winter, the National Weather Service anticipates a La Niña pattern, which could influence snowfall distribution. Historically, La Niña winters bring more snow to the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rocky Mountains. The Great Lakes region and parts of New England also tend to see above-average snowfall during La Niña events.

However, this year’s La Niña is expected to be weak and short-lived, which could alter its usual impact. In such conditions, the north-central U.S. may experience even more snow, while the Pacific Northwest may not see as much as during a stronger La Niña.

Stay Tuned for More Updates:

We’ll release a more detailed Christmas snow forecast in mid-December. The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center will also provide temperature and precipitation outlooks 6 to 10 days in advance but always make sure to follow our severe weather map here.

Stay warm and safe as we head into the holiday season!