Introduction This informative forecast writing will focus on the weather forecasting tools and concepts that are used to predict winter weather events. There are various types of winter weather events that are analyzed and forecasted including mid-latitude cyclones, ice storms, lake-effect snows and sleet storms. Each of these will be discussed separately. In addition, bust … Read more
Snow is a precipitation type that results from the build-up of ice deposition upon condensation nuclei. The snowflake size is amplified as ice crystals join together as the crystals move in the wind. A common theme in ice crystal development is the 6-sized structure of the ice crystals. The chemical bonding of ice molecules produces … Read more
The snow-to-liquid equivalent is the amount of liquid precipitation that is produced after melting snow. The temperature profile of the troposphere and the surface temperature are important factors that determine this value. The “average” snow-to-liquid ratio is 10:1. This is saying that if 10 inches of snow fell and that snow was melted it would … Read more
Section 1: Is it Going to be a Big Deal? One of the more difficult forecasts to make is the winter precipitation forecast. The complexity is with determining precipitation type, areal coverage, and whether any winter precipitation will accumulate at the ground surface in the first place. The public is very sensitive to winter forecasts … Read more
It’s that time of year… Winter. The season when those unrealistic snow and ice accumulation maps, for an unlikely event 10 days into the future, that often go viral on social media. So, I wanted to briefly discuss the nature of internet weather hype and how you can learn to recognize it. As the National … Read more
Before I begin this piece, I want to present a challenge. The following chart shows the actual high and low temperatures for a full month in Atlanta, Georgia. *A condensed version of this writeup was also featured in the Douglas County Sentinel. Challenge: Can you spot the day with a historic snowstorm? During this particular … Read more
In an earlier article, we discussed the dynamics and thermodynamics of lake effect snow. In this post, we discuss the meteorological differences between single-band and multiple-band lake-effect snow events. Keep in mind that all lake-effect snow events are fueled by moisture and latent heat flux from the relatively warm lake water; these fluxes are already … Read more