Hurricane Helene has become the 2nd deadliest hurricane over the past 50 years for the United States. Over 170 deaths and over 600 people remain missing.
The recent flooding in Asheville caused by predecessor rain events of Hurricane Helene serves as a chilling reminder of the devastating power of weather systems and the importance of preparedness in the face of such events.
September 2024. These events are referred to as predecessor rain events (PREs)
While the “Great Flood of 1916” holds a grim place in North Carolina’s history, Helene’s impact demonstrates that the vulnerability to extreme weather persists even today.
Both events shared a common origin: an overabundance of rainfall.
In 1916, a series of hurricanes saturated the ground, followed by a Category 2 hurricane that unleashed record-breaking rainfall. Similarly, Helene brought torrential rains, leading to widespread flooding. The French Broad River, a central point of comparison, overflowed its banks in both instances. In 1916, it crested an estimated 17 feet above flood stage, while during Helene, the Swannanoa River at Biltmore crested at 26.1 feet, nearly 6 feet above the previous record.
Silver Creek.
The scale of devastation is hauntingly similar.
The 1916 flood claimed at least 80 lives, though the true number remains unknown. Helene’s death toll currently stands at 170, and sadly, it is expected to rise. Both events caused widespread destruction of homes, businesses, and infrastructure. While the 1916 flood caused an estimated $22 million in damages (over $600 million in today’s currency), the full extent of Helene’s financial impact is yet to be determined.
However, there are also notable differences.
VS A “sunny, normal day” view from a similar location,
accessed via Google Street Maps.
The landscape of Western North Carolina has changed significantly over the past century. Increased development and population density mean that Helene likely affected a larger number of people and structures. Furthermore, advancements in forecasting and communication technology have enabled better preparedness and response efforts in 2024 compared to 1916.
The comparison between the two floods highlights the ongoing need for vigilance and awareness concerning weather patterns.
While we cannot prevent hurricanes and tropical storms, we can strive to mitigate their impact through improved infrastructure, early warning systems, and community preparedness. The tragic events of both 1916 and 2024 underscore the importance of respecting the power of nature and taking proactive steps to protect ourselves and our communities.
I-26, north of Asheville and into Tennessee is now projected to be closed until March 2025.
This means there are no interstate highways from Western North Carolina into Tennessee until next year.
Learning from Helene: Trusting the Experts Saves Lives
Despite claims to the contrary, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center accurately predicted the devastating flooding in North Carolina caused by Hurricane Helene. They used advanced computer models, factoring in terrain and historical data, to anticipate the storm’s path and the potential for torrential rainfall. Days before landfall, they issued warnings about “catastrophic and life-threatening flooding” across the Southeast, specifically mentioning the vulnerability of the Appalachian region.
The Weather Prediction Center also issued detailed forecasts showing potential rainfall amounts exceeding 10 inches in some areas. This information was communicated clearly through advisories, briefings, and social media, with the National Weather Service offices in North Carolina issuing targeted Flood Watches and Warnings.
While predicting the exact location and severity of flooding remains challenging, NOAA and the NHC provided ample warning of the inland dangers posed by Hurricane Helene, ultimately contributing to saving lives and mitigating damage. This underscores the importance of relying on official sources and heeding warnings, even when a hurricane’s initial impact is felt elsewhere.