- Severe Storm Browser Map including Milton alerts
As Tropical Storm Milton continues to strengthen in the Gulf, the Governor has issued EO 24-214 ahead of potential landfall on Florida’s west coast this week. This EO declares a state of emergency in 35 Florida counties. Milton is expected to intensify into a major Hurricane Milton by Monday. Now is the time to start preparing even though some of you just started to take your hurricane shutters down in the Tampa Bay area.
Go here for our Tropical Outlook & Hurricane Graphics page for the most current updates.
Saturday 11pm ET NHC track update on Milton. Intensity forecast bumped to 120mph. Timing slowed down some towards landfall. Track close the same.
Latest Saturday night 00z spaghetti models for Hurricane Milton on tropicaltidbits. Staying solid. Dirty side center south on approach. Dirty side center north on exit. Hurricane through Florida likely with major impacts.
Most Likely Arrival Time of Hurricane-Force Winds for Florida’s Hurricane Milton
#Milton won’t be only a Gulf coast event for Florida. Strong, damaging, even life-threatening winds could occur in some farthest inland locations and all the way to Atlantic coast. Coastal & inland areas will risk rain-induced floods, and even Atlantic coast could get some surge.
Possible Hurricane Milton Landfall
Don’t infer #Milton will be weakening at landfall. Forecast intensity for 7 pm Wed is at a point slightly inland. Forecast implies cat 3 landfall so plan for possible cat 4. Also plan for possibility it doesn’t go down middle of cone. Tampa Bay among many possible landfall spots.
NHC is understandably conservative with the intensity but it’s probably a done deal to major status (Category 3 100 knots) and then higher to 115-knots (Category 4). Preparations should be made for a major hurricane regardless.
SSTs are very warm in the Gulf of Mexico in the 28°C to 29°C range with warmer eddy features along the way that can turbo-charge Milton rapidly.
NHC discussion highlights the favorable upper-level atmospheric and oceanic conditions for rapid intensification.