A multi-day dryline setup was in place across the central Plains on Sunday, May 8th; and Monday, May 9th, respectively. Observed conditions from radiosonde, or weather balloon, launches, indicated an environment conducive for widespread severe thunderstorms was starting to filter into the central Kansas and central Oklahoma region. Important to any storm chase is to … Read more
This phenomenon is NOT unusual, but it doesn’t always happen. Today, the dry line and the resulting squall-line were perfectly aligned. The data presented a teaching moment that I couldn’t pass up. At the end of the animation, I zoom in so you can see the wind barbs pointing toward the dry line. The air … Read more
The Result [Tuesday 4/26 8:17 pm] ➡︎ NOTE: Read the original update from Monday 4/25. ***Quasi-Linear Convective System Has Evolved as Expected*** ***Moving toward DFW with winds of 65+ mph*** Winds of 65+ mph detected within the bowing segments… These will arrive in the metroplex over the next two hours… Some wind damage/power outages possible… … Read more
I typically do not share model data because they can be very complex. I do want to show one of the state-of-the-art programs that I use in my operations to analyze model-simulated soundings. The models do not automatically compute these data; the additional software turns the raw output into meaningful information. At least one of … Read more
Global Wind 7-Day Satellite Loop Note: The purpose of this post is to share advanced forecasting techniques, not present formal research at this time. Example Case: Heavy Rain Event in North Texas ◙ I wanted to show some of the 48-hour rainfall amounts as of 7:00 am CDT April 18, 2016 (officially spans a 48-hour … Read more
On the afternoon of March 24, 2016, a stunning mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) formed within a mesoscale convective system as it moved over southern Alabama. I created the animation below using a sequence of radar images provided by the College of DuPage. What is an MCV (Mesoscale Convective Vortex)? An MCV is an area of … Read more
On Sunday, March 13, 2016, DFW Airport (along with many other locations) reached 80 degrees for the first time this year. Prior to 3/13, the last time DFW was at or above 80º was on December 26th. December 26, 2015 was the date of the historic EF-4 tornado that tore a path through the eastern … Read more
On Monday, March 7th, 2016, a spectacular supercell formed in far northwestern Oklahoma and entered southern Kansas. A supercell is a thunderstorm that rotates. Conditions on Monday were favorable for a couple of supercells to initiate off the dryline in far western Oklahoma, and into western Kansas. However, given weak convergence along the dryline and meager … Read more
Our high-resolution maps of accumulated snowfall are updated several times a day for the United States and much of Canada. ● Today’s Snow Cover Stats ● Interactive Map Snow Cover Map (Current – High-Resolution) Note: Refresh the browser if data fail to load Today’s Snow-Cover Percent, Depth, & Liquid Equivalent (SWE) These stats include the … Read more
Every emergency guide out there suggests you get a backup generator to power your home after the electricity goes out, so learning more about home generators work and what they can do is a must if you want to be prepared. Hurricanes, winter storms and even simple outages can happen at any time; no matter … Read more
Friday 2/12… For the sake of conversation, I wanted to share some thoughts about forecast variance (i.e., the tendency for forecasts to vary from one meteorologist to another), forecast advancements, and forecast techniques. It goes without saying that atmospheric prediction is *extremely* difficult and time consuming. During an active pattern, a forecast for a 36-hour … Read more
Final Update [Tuesday, February 9, 2016] Forecast Verification [Previous Forecasts Further Down the Page] Forecast Update #2 for Atlanta – Posted Friday 2/5/16 ***No Forecast Changes*** ***Light snow Monday night/Tuesday*** ***Some light accumulations possible*** ◙ A strong cold front will bring drastic temperature changes to Georgia Monday night… ◙ To get caught up … Read more
Brief Overview of the Storm’s Evolution SST Anomalies Evolution of the Surface Low (Animation) After the surface low emerged over the anomalously warm ocean water on the morning of January 23, it deepened and intensified for another 12 to 15 hours with the central pressure reaching a minimum of 983 mb on the evening of … Read more
Forecast Update [Saturday 1/30 7:45 am] ***80º today ~ 25 deg above normal*** ***Wind gusts to 40 mph late afternoon/tonight*** This is an update to the original forecast from Monday 1/25 — The only change is to raise high temperatures for today as I mentioned would be possible in the Monday forecast update. The springlike … Read more
➡︎ Quick Links: ● Latest update ● Initial forecast (Tues 1/19) ● Snow forecast ● Radar Special Update (Thursday 1/21 3:30 pm) Flood Watch now in effect for tonight through Saturday morn Winter Weather Advisory for accumulating snow effective Fri 3 pm – Sat 7 am. NOTE: I do not expect any snow in the … Read more
January 14, 2016 (1 pm EST) Max-Sustained Wind: 75 kt / 85 mph / 981 mb / Category 1 View the list of active tropical cyclones Interesting Statistics about Hurricane Alex Alex is only the 2nd-known Atlantic hurricane to form during the month of January since records began (partial record as far back as 1842). … Read more
Special (1/14/2016) Alex became a hurricane on Thursday Jan 14, 2016 Update [Wednesday January 13, 2016 at 5 pm AST] Sub-Tropical Storm Alex has formed in the East Atlantic. As discussed below, Alex is only the second-known storm to form during the month of January in the 174-year database (1842-present). ➡︎ See also: Forecast #1 … Read more
December 2015 was unseasonably warm for Atlanta, Georgia. The temperature fell below freezing only one time, on December 19th when the low temperature was 29ºF. The day prior, on December 18th, the low was only 32ºF. In 2015, the average temperature (combined high and low) was 57.5ºF, which breaks the record previously set 126 years … Read more
2015 was Atlanta’s Warmest Christmas on Record Results of My Forecast Posted on December 23rd On December 23rd, I predicted that records would be tied or broken each day from Christmas Eve through December 27th (4 days in a row). As of 5 am, Sunday 12/27, the forecast has been a success. My median forecast … Read more
Christmas Week Forecast Page ➡︎ Heavy Rain Event & Possible Flooding: ● Forecast #1 Thu 12/24 ● Forecast #2 Fri 12/25 ➡︎ All Christmas Week Updates: ● #1 Sun 12/13 ● #2 Tues 12/15 ● #3 Sat 12/19 ● #4 Thurs 12/24 ● #5 Fri 12/25 First forecast is at the … Read more
Rainfall Records for DFW (Since Records Began) [year]: Rainfall so far this year DFW Records Summary: 2015 is the wettest year on record (rainfall in 2015) Wettest November on record The most rain ever recorded on any day in November (11/27/15) The greatest 2-day total ever recorded within the 215 days between September 23 and … Read more
Outcome Update #2 Posted Sunday 11/29/15 at Noon The rainfall configuration and amounts lined up very well with my forecasts leading up to this event (documented further down this page). Records were set, as predicted, and 2015 will go down as the wettest year on record. Check out our real-time rainfall tally to see how … Read more
How does the first freeze compare with normal (climatology)? ❄️ The average first freeze at DFW is November 22. Therefore, this year’s freeze was right on schedule, based on the current 30-year average (1981-2010). Other Freeze Statistics for DFW: Average first freeze: November 22 Average last freeze: March 13 Earliest freeze on record: October 22, … Read more
The fluid dynamics associated with atmospheric disturbances cause the downstream air (ahead of the disturbance, before it arrives at a location) to rise, and the upstream air (behind the disturbance, i.e., after the disturbance has passed) to sink. If there is sufficient moisture in the area of rising air, clouds and precipitation may form. Necessary … Read more
This was a lot of fun for me. The Weather Channel featured me on their “Weather Geeks” show, which is hosted by my friend and colleague, Dr. Marshall Shepherd. My Favorite Photo I have over 30,000 photos in my library, and the first photo shown in the segment is my favorite. This was a historic … Read more
Imagine yourself as a cloud, happily floating over the surface of the Earth without a care in the world. As you drift across the sky, the millions of tiny water droplets and ice crystals that you are composed of brush against each other, causing a buildup of electric charges in your cloud body. The negative … Read more
Final Rainfall Amounts [Posted Saturday 10/31 at 1:25 pm] The NWS in Fort Worth prepared this graphic depicting storm total rainfall amounts. Using the legend, I drew the 2-inch line. Clearly, most of the area saw 2 to 4 inches, but there was an area of 4 to 7 inches in Tarrant, Dallas, Johnson, and … Read more
➡︎ Update History: Initial Forecast (Sunday 10/18) & Updates 2 through 5 | Update #6 | Update #7 Forecast Verification and Records Tied or Broken ◙ Record #1 [Broken] 2.58 inches of rain at DFW on Thursday 10/22 shattered the previous record for the date (2.19″) set in 1908. ◙ Record #2 [Broken] 3.55 inches … Read more
➡︎ Update History: Initial Forecast (Sunday 10/18) | Update #2 | Update #3 | Update #4 | Results/Records Broken Latest Forecasts (Starting at Update #6 on Friday 10/23) Continued Here Forecast Verification and Records Tied or Broken ◙ Record #1 [Broken] 2.58 inches of rain at DFW on Thursday 10/22 shattered the previous record … Read more
Atlanta’s biggest snowfall events of all time are listed in the table below. The most snow ever recorded on a single day in Atlanta was on January 23, 1940 when 8.3 inches fell. The top 10 snowstorms in Atlanta have a median accumulation of 4.2 inches. View the full list We often hear the cliche: … Read more