Below is my partial/subjective surface analysis using 2 pm data. There is certainly a convoluted mess of fronts associated with this surface low. However, the dry line is obvious with at least one dry-line bulge southwest of the metroplex. Surface-based convective available potential energy (CAPE) in that area exceeds 4,000 J/kg. There is a θe … Read more
Slow-moving, training supercells brought enormous rainfall amounts to the southern Oklahoma City metro on Wednesday, May 6, 2015. Rainfall rates of 3 to 4 inches per hour occurred with the thunderstorms. Update: The rainfall total has been updated to reflect the final official amount as confirmed by the NWS. The change was minor (a tenth of … Read more
Update #2 [Wednesday 4/22 10:40 pm] ***Severe Thunderstorm Watch*** A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for the thunderstorms that developed to the northwest as predicted. These continue to move southeast. The watch is in effect until 4 am. Read my initial forecast discussion posted the day before, on Tuesday 4/21 Update#1 [Radar Update – … Read more
Special Update [Saturday 4/18 7:40 pm] Significant thunderstorm wind damage is likely in the path of this downburst throughout Tarrant County, with winds in excess of 70 mph possible. It is moving northeast through Tarrant County. Velocity Image at 7:40 pm: Fourth Forecast Update [Saturday 4/18 5:45 pm] ***Severe Thunderstorm Watch Until 1 am*** Includes … Read more
UPDATE: Thursday 4/9 at 4 pm [Update Regarding Convective Initiation]: My map yesterday placed convective initiation along a McKinney to DFW Airport to Stephenville line. I am adjusting it west by about 20 miles to from Pilot Point to Fort Worth to Stephenville. This shift wouldn’t normally be significant (it’s within the margin of error), … Read more
→ Read my initial forecast published on Saturday, March 21 Final Update – Observed Low Temperatures on the morning of March 29, 2014 The freeze that was predicted for over a week verified perfectly. All locations in northern Georgia fell below freezing for 4 or more hours Saturday night/Sunday morning. I’ve gone through the observations, … Read more
Update #5 Friday 3/20 at 1:30 pm [Final Update]: A few official rainfall amounts over the past 24 hours Sister Grove Ck (Collin): 1.86 Melissa (Collin): 1.43 Prosper (Collin): 1.24 Dallas, Irving Blvd (Dallas): 0.51 Gainesville (Cooke): 1.56 Valley View (Cooke): 1.67 Denton (Denton): 0.81 Ladonia (Fannin): 2.93 Celeste (Hunt): 2.17 Alvord (Wise): 1.14 Update … Read more
The United States is also home to the most frequent occurrence and the largest variety of extreme weather events of any other country in the world. These events include, but are not limited to, extreme heat/cold, snowstorms, tropical storms and hurricanes, droughts, areal and flash floods, hail storms, and tornadoes. While none of this is … Read more
Cold-air damming (CAD), often called “the wedge” in the Southeast, is an interesting meteorological feature that can result in tricky forecasts for meteorologists. Topography plays a major role in CAD events, and you need a mountainous range for this feature to develop. While CAD can occur in the Rockies, it is predominant east of the … Read more
Below are details of the March 4th-5th 2015 snowstorm in North Texas. You may be interested in these related pages: DFW snowfall records dating back to 1898 List of the worst snowstorms to hit DFW (top 20) 2015 snow and sleet events (2014-2015 winter) Current snow cover map (updated daily) Daily Snowfall Accum Stats for … Read more
For a brief moment, it will feel like spring in northern Georgia. I expect temperatures on Wednesday (3/4) to be in the lower 70s. However, an Arctic front will move through Atlanta on Thursday morning, with temperatures falling through the 30s. Low temperatures Friday morning (3/6) will be in the lower 20s. A lot of … Read more
Final Update: Thursday 3/5 9 pm: View the storm reports Discussion #6 Wednesday 3/4 at noon: ***Winter Storm Warning is in Effect*** I have been analyzing vertical thermodynamic profiles at various times over the next 15 hours and the evolution of the atmosphere continues to support a transition from rain to freezing rain this afternoon, … Read more
The map below shows the actual snowfall accumulations on February 27, 2015 in North Texas. Parts of North Texas received over 6 inches of snow. The accumulation map was prepared by the NWS in Fort Worth using more than 200 ground reports. Official Metroplex Airport Reports DFW Airport: 2 inches. Broke the previous daily record … Read more
Final Update Saturday 2/28: Observed Snowfall Totals The following map was prepared by the National Weather Service in Fort Worth and is a graphical representation of over 200 reports gathered via social media, storm spotters, and official observers. I will gather additional information that will hopefully provide additional details/specifics. All updates starting with my initial … Read more
When it comes to winter weather, there is no shortage of advisory types. This page is devoted to the four main winter weather products: Winter Storm Watch, Winter Storm Warning, Winter Weather Advisory, and Ice Storm Warning. More specifically, I want to discuss the criteria used by the National Weather Service Office in Fort Worth, … Read more
Overview: A winter storm is developing for North Texas. I have been monitoring the data very closely for the past few days, and my concern is growing that a problematic sleet & freezing rain event may impact the area beginning Sunday night and continuing through Monday. On Sunday, temperatures should stay in the 40s as overcast … Read more
Special Update (Sunday 2/15 8:00 pm) ***Freezing Rain Possible Over Western Parts of North Texas*** ***West of a line from Gainesville to Denton to Fort Worth*** The strong cold front will move through North Texas tonight as predicted in my previous forecasts. Behind the front, temperatures will fall rapidly into the 30s. As of 8 … Read more
Update #7 Sunday, February 15, 3:30 pm: Warmer air will surge in earlier than expected, meaning that only rain will fall in the Atlanta metro on Monday. Late in the day and overnight, the rain may change to freezing rain and/or sleet, especially east of a Cedartown to Douglasville to Conyers to Athens line (the … Read more
In atmospheric dynamics, a negatively tilted upper-level trough tends to be stronger and much more dynamic, particularly if there is a closed upper low Both rising air and heavy precipitation (especially snow) work to cool the atmosphere from the top down. This is called dynamic cooling and it is extremely efficient at turning an otherwise … Read more
Before I begin this piece, I want to present a challenge. The following chart shows the actual high and low temperatures for a full month in Atlanta, Georgia. *A condensed version of this writeup was also featured in the Douglas County Sentinel. Challenge: Can you spot the day with a historic snowstorm? During this particular … Read more
Special Update (Tuesday, January 27 at 12:11 am EST): At midnight, snowfall rates in excess of 2 inches per hour were moving west toward New York City. This band has been showing a decrease in intensity over the past couple of hours as the storm intensifies offshore and both the atmospheric energy and mesoscale forcing contract … Read more
The National Weather Service has sole responsibility for issuing weather watches and warnings. When it comes to winter weather, there are numerous advisory types ranging from Wind Chill Advisories to Ice Storm and Blizzard Warnings. This page is devoted to the four main winter weather products: Winter Storm Watches, Winter Storm Warnings, Winter Weather Advisories, … Read more
(Forecast Posted Tuesday 1/20/15) …Widespread heavy rain & possible winter weather event for North Texas… In my forecast yesterday (Monday), I noted that Thursday’s high temperature would occur at midnight (40s) then fall into the mid 30s for the daytime. This continues to be a very difficult forecast, because there isn’t a preexisting cold airmass … Read more
The Weather Bureau, now known as the National Weather Service, was established on February 9, 1870 by the 41st United States Congress and signed by President Ulysses S. Grant. On March 29, 1870, the new weather forecasting service was officially assigned to the U.S. Army Signal Service within the Department of War and given the … Read more
I’ve been posting updates about this airmass on my Facebook and Twitter pages, but I thought I’d go ahead and write a short discussion about this airmass. It has the potential to be the coldest air we’ve seen in a year or so, at least when measured by the low temperatures Wednesday night/Thursday morning. Precipitation … Read more
Special Update (Wednesday, January 7 at 8 pm EST) Temperatures are already falling into the teens in the western and northern suburbs. Current temperatures are a couple of degrees colder at this hour than model guidance had indicated. Dew points (a measure of atmospheric moisture) continue to drop, and temperatures tonight should certainly be on … Read more
Track the storm with the Weather-Net tools: Advisories/Warnings | Live & Predictive Radar Special Update (Wednesday 12/31 11:30 pm CST) Precipitation is entering North Texas (use the radar links above to track the precipitation). Temperatures will fall below freezing after the precipitation begins. As I posted earlier today, the critical line is the 29º wet-bulb … Read more
As a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador, iWeatherNet strives to create educational content to help you be prepared for any type of severe weather; this includes winter weather. I wanted to take the opportunity to briefly review the various winter weather products issued by the Atlanta National Weather Service in Peachtree City. Other States Central Alabama: … Read more
This page was updated on Tuesday 12/23 at 1:17 pm EST: A Flood Watch has been issued Useful Tools on iWeatherNet: Advisories | Interactive Radar Christmas Week Forecast/Event Timing: Monday/Monday Night: Rain likely. Temperatures steady in the mid 40s. Tuesday: Dense fog much of the day. Rain and thunderstorms developing late. Rain increasing in intensity … Read more
A disturbance will bring a cold rain to the Southeast Friday night and Saturday morning (12/19 and 12/20). Simultaneously, some weak cold-air damming will be enhanced by evaporative cooling yielding a very cold/raw day for holiday shoppers, particularly during the morning. Here are some forecast highlights for those who plan to be out and about: … Read more