For the past week, the global numerical prediction models, including the GFS and ECMWF, have hinted at the potential of a negatively tilted trough digging into the Southeast. They have consistently indicated a strong area of low pressure across the Arklatex propagating off to the northeast into Missouri and Kentucky. Ahead of the low, an … Read more
A vigorous upper-level disturbance is moving into West Texas this morning. The trough axis (and associated forcing) will not move east of the area until tonight. As the system approaches North Texas, a copious amount of Gulf moisture continues to advect into North Texas. As of 11 am, much of the area has already seen … Read more
One of the most awe-inspiring forces of nature is lake-effect snow. The amount of latent energy required to produce the lake-effect convection is astounding, and in some situations, snowfall rates can reach as high as 5 to 6 inches per hour. In this article, we discuss the atmospheric physics, dynamics, and thermodynamics responsible for the … Read more
The Arctic front is on schedule, and the colder air is filtering into North Texas as of 11 am (Sunday, 11/16). This map shows temperatures at 11 am. Upper-Air Data (Morning Sounding and Forecast Soundings) Throughout the morning, drizzle and light rain have been falling across North Texas with temperatures in the mid to upper … Read more
Published Friday, November 14 at 3:50 pm: Earlier this week, I posted about the potential for light snow on Sunday evening. The forecast has not changed. However, because of the timing of the precipitation Sunday evening (after temperatures drop to freezing), I am adding some light accumulations. The greatest chance for accumulating snow is north … Read more
This will be a very brief update to mention the possibility of very light sleet in North Texas tonight. An upper-level disturbance is moving into Texas, and will provide sufficient (albeit weak) forcing for precipitation. Temperatures will fall to near freezing in the metroplex and below freezing for areas north of Denton by 10 pm. … Read more
For the past 5 days, I have been closely monitoring a disturbance that will move across North Texas on Sunday/Sunday night. Every meteorologist who has been watching the model data is fully aware of the “accumulating snow” that some of the models have suggested over the past week. One thing that legitimate meteorologists typically do … Read more
The long-awaited cold front will finally reach the Atlanta metro tomorrow evening (Wednesday 11/12). At this time, it still appears that the front will move through the Atlanta area during the early-evening hours. After reaching the mid 60s on Wednesday, Atlanta will be 20 degrees colder on Thursday with highs only in the mid 40s. … Read more
A strong cold front will move through North Texas on Tuesday (11/4/14). The timing of the cold front, and rain amounts may need to be modified with future data. At this time, these are my expectations: Ahead of the front Tuesday morning, temperatures should be 65º to 70º. Temperatures will fall 15 to 20 degrees … Read more
As predicted, the strongest cold front so far this season is moving south through the Midwest, and will arrive in the Birmingham/Atlanta areas this evening. 10/31 12:52 pm Forecast Update: The cold front will be moving through around 7 pm. Temperatures will fall into the 40s, especially after 8 pm. The wind will … Read more
Wednesday, October 22, 2014 – There are indications that the first freeze of the season may occur in about 10 days from now (around Halloween/Nov 1/2/3). Stay tuned for future updates. Update #1 – Thursday, October 23, 2014 ***Strongest cold front so far this season one week from tomorrow (Halloween) followed by the first freeze*** … Read more